La transizione verso un'economia decarbonizzata creerà opportunità significative per le aziende ben posizionate per affrontarla. Lo sottolinea Peter Weidner, Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Systematic Edge Equity di Allspring Global Investments, che ricorda i risultati raggiunti dal fondo Climate Transition Global Equity I-USD, che ha di recente festeggiato il suo terzo anniversario e si contraddistingue per il suo approccio bottom up focalizzato sulla ricerca di alpha.

Cosa vuol dire “investire nella transizione climatica” per un investitore azionario?
A nostro avviso la transizione verso un’economia decarbonizzata avrà effetti dirompenti per le aziende, e richiederà nuove normative, cambiamenti sul fronte fiscale e tecnologie rivoluzionarie. Un cambiamento di tale portata creerà opportunità significative per le aziende ben posizionate per affrontare la transizione con successo. Per noi, investire nella transizione significa partecipare al beneficio che alcune società trarranno dalla transizione verso un’economia decarbonizzata. 

Come sono i risultati? Le strategie climate based non hanno realizzato una sottoperformance negli ultimi anni? 
Stiamo celebrando il terzo anniversario del nostro fondo Climate Transition Global Equity I-USD, che ha generato extra rendimenti pari al 3,06% l’anno dal lancio (al netto delle commissioni) fino al 22 luglio 2024 rispetto all’indice MSCI ACWI (1). È vero, la performance di alcuni fondi legati alla transizione climatica è stata messa alla prova, ma il nostro approccio fortemente focalizzato sulla ricerca dell’alpha bottom up e sulla gestione dei rischi macroeconomici ci ha consentito di affrontare con successo le complessità dei mercati, pur non avendo mai assunto esposizione alle tradizionali società attive nell’oil&gas.  

Come avete raggiunto questo risultato? In che modo l’approccio alla strategia Climate Transition Global Equity si differenzia dalle altre vostre strategie? 
Il team gestisce portafogli azionari avvalendosi di un approccio sistematico sin dagli anni Novanta. Sfruttiamo il nostro approccio di costruzione del portafoglio e il nostro modello di alpha quantitativo per progettare, costruire e gestire i nostri portafogli. Questo significa che possiamo offrire ai nostri clienti diverse sfumature dello stesso approccio per la generazione di alpha al fine di soddisfare le loro esigenze specifiche (in questo caso l’allineamento a obiettivi connessi al clima). 
A nostro avviso il nostro vantaggio competitivo nella selezione dei titoli è rappresentato da una ricerca rigorosa, da un approccio sistematico e dall’analisi fondamentale. Ci adoperiamo per valutare le società sotto ogni punto di vista e assicurare una sovraperformance interessante e al contempo resiliente. 
Per costruire un portafoglio usando un processo di selezione dei titoli bottom up, dobbiamo essere estremamente cauti nella gestione del rischio. E questo è particolarmente vero se consideriamo il contesto macroeconomico degli ultimi anni. Quando valutiamo un titolo ne consideriamo il potenziale di alpha, l’allineamento alla temperatura e il ruolo più generale che svolge all’interno del portafoglio. Ad esempio: il titolo in questione è in grado di mitigare il rischio di tasso d’interesse, sostenere un’inflazione elevata o dimostrare resilienza alla volatilità dei prezzi delle materie prime? Un po’ come avviene nello sport, l'importante non è avere i giocatori più forti, ma la squadra migliore. Allo stesso modo ci adoperiamo per costruire i portafogli migliori, piuttosto che portafogli composti dalle società migliori.

Come superate le difficoltà legate alla qualità dei dati sul clima? 
La qualità dei dati è migliorata con il tempo, ma non è perfetta. A mio avviso per un professionista dell’investimento è fondamentale comprendere i punti di forza e di debolezza dei dati che utilizza e degli altri dati a disposizione. In tal modo è in grado di costruire portafogli che sfruttano i punti di forza e considerano i punti di debolezza per generare i risultati migliori. Nessun dataset è perfetto, dunque non va escluso a priori solo perché presenta delle limitazioni. Utilizziamo numerosi fornitori di dati sul clima e sulla sostenibilità, con modalità differenti in funzione dei loro specifici punti di forza, e personalizziamo il tipo di dati e il modo in cui li usiamo in base al processo di investimento e ai risultati che vogliamo ottenere. Il panorama dei dati cambia rapidamente, e in quanto fruitori di questi dati ne valutiamo costantemente la qualità adattandoci alla loro evoluzione nel tempo. 
Uno dei grandi vantaggi che abbiamo come investitori quantitativi è che il nostro approccio mira ad estrarre valore da qualunque tipologia di dati. Potrebbe sembrare controintuitivo, ma il nostro focus sui dati ci rende molto critici in merito ai loro punti deboli. A tal fine utilizziamo lenti diverse per valutare l’allineamento. Ad esempio, utilizziamo una lente previsionale per valutare l’allineamento alla temperatura, oltre a considerare i dati point in time. Consideriamo l’intensità di carbonio, l’impronta di carbonio e altri fattori come il mix energetico delle società di servizi di pubblica utilità. Si tratta di un approccio a mosaico che ci aiuta a gestire i rischi relativi ai dati costruendo una prospettiva articolata e completa. Lo integriamo poi con l’analisi fondamentale per rafforzare ulteriormente il nostro livello di convinzione. 

Nella creazione della strategia, perché avete deciso di focalizzarvi sulla transizione climatica piuttosto che sulle soluzioni per il clima?
Le soluzioni per il clima sono un segmento di mercato ridotto. Piuttosto che restringere il nostro focus, vogliamo investire su scala più ampia. Dal momento che la transizione influenzerà l’intera economia, riteniamo sia fondamentale investire trasversalmente nelle società che sono strategicamente pronte a gestire la transizione, perché meglio posizionate per realizzare una sovraperformance sotto il profilo finanziario.
Ci piace pensare a queste società come ai “vincitori” della transizione climatica. Si tratta di società dotate di valutazioni interessanti, utili di qualità elevata e management di alto livello, nonché un buon supporto dal mercato. In generale possiamo ricondurre queste caratteristiche ai fattori value, quality e momentum. Ciascun fattore è importante, ma non in egual misura in qualunque momento. Il nostro processo è dinamico e ci consente di modificare l’esposizione ai fattori che in un determinato momento sono remunerati dal mercato e chiudere le esposizioni che invece non lo sono. Il processo e la filosofia rimangono invariati, ma la strategia è flessibile per adattarsi alle oscillazioni delle forze di mercato. Un ulteriore vantaggio è che siamo in grado di costruire un portafoglio che ha caratteristiche analoghe all’azionario, ossia può inserirsi facilmente nell’asset allocation di un investitore che desideri generare rendimenti nel lungo periodo mantenendosi allineato alla transizione a un’economia decarbonizzata.
Dal punto di vista dell’asset owner, alcuni investitori utilizzano una strategia orientata alla transizione climatica all’interno dell’allocazione azionaria globale core, altri la impiegano come allocazione tematica. Può fornire un’esposizione core o satellite, a seconda delle esigenze dell’investitore. Il nostro approccio ad ampio spettro ci consente di rimanere focalizzati sulla generazione dei risultati migliori possibili per i nostri clienti.

Note
(1) = Fonte: Bloomberg. La data di lancio della classe di azioni è il 20 luglio 2021. La performance per luglio 2024 è un dato preliminare, la performance effettiva sarà calcolata a fine mese e potrebbe differire leggermente. La performance passata non è una garanzia affidabile di rendimenti futuri.

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